Will Ana Talita de Oliviera Alencar win the de Oliviera Alencar vs Polastri professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Ana Talita de Oliviera Alencar win the de Oliviera Alencar vs Polastri professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr .... This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing signals with Ana Talita's Yes contract trading at 28¢ despite an extraordinary 6744% implied yield, suggesting severe undervaluation relative to the fight's April 25 scheduled date.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing signals with Ana Talita's Yes contract trading at 28¢ despite an extraordinary 6744% implied yield, suggesting severe undervaluation relative to the fight's April 25 scheduled date. The 7-day price surge from 2¢ to 21¢ (950% move) combined with a realized volatility of 4118% and cliff risk index of 4 indicates high uncertainty around fight confirmation or fighter status, not just win probability. With only $984.74 open interest and a 7¢ spread on a market closing May 9 (14 days post-fight), liquidity is dangerously thin and the extreme yield metrics may reflect illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge.
Resolution rules
If Ana Talita de Oliviera Alencar wins the de Oliviera Alencar vs Polastri professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCFIGHT-26APR25DEOPOL-DEO yes 100