Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 228-day runway, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Anthropic releases a model called Mythos by the deadline.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 228-day runway, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Anthropic releases a model called Mythos by the deadline. The 0¢ price reflects near-complete skepticism about the event occurring, though the asymmetric implied yields (23.9% for Yes vs. 1070.3% for No) indicate the market structure heavily penalizes betting against consensus rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment. The 10¢ spread and high cliff risk index (7) suggest this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where any credible news about Anthropic's product roadmap could trigger significant repricing.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01 yes 100