Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This 16% probability reflects market expectations that Anthropic will announce Mythos, a new AI model, between now and January 1, 2027—with the tighter November 1 deadline priced at just 10%. The pricing pattern across multiple dates suggests traders believe a release is more likely in late December than in the next 3.5 months, but still view it as unlikely to occur before year-end. Current uncertainty appears driven by the absence of official announcements or confirmed timelines from Anthropic. A public statement about release dates, leaked roadmaps, or Anthropic's typical product cadence would substantially shift these probabilities. The sharp drop in contract prices for September (4¢) versus later dates indicates minimal market confidence in imminent deployment.

• ›Anthropic has not publicly announced Mythos or committed to a 2026 release date as of mid-July 2026
• ›The Nov 1 contract is priced 37% lower than the Jan 1 contract, indicating traders expect delays beyond fall if release occurs at all
• ›Trading volume concentrates on Dec 1 and Jan 1 dates ($8300+ daily), while Sep/Oct contracts have negligible volume, suggesting consensus skepticism about near-term delivery
• ›Historical patterns of AI model release timing and Anthropic's previous announcement-to-launch windows would inform baseline expectations
• ›Official product announcements, partnership disclosures, or regulatory filings mentioning Mythos would serve as primary catalysts to reprice these contracts

What moved the line

• Aug 22Before Dec 1, 2026↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds