Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026
Leader sits at 15% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Anthropic release Mythos before
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26SEP01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01
Analysis
This probability reflects aggregated market expectations that Anthropic will announce its Mythos model release before November 1, 2026. The 56% level suggests traders view a release as somewhat more likely than not, though meaningful uncertainty remains. The main drivers are Anthropic's historical release cadence—the company announced Claude 3 in March 2024 and Claude 3.5 in October 2024—and competitive pressures from other AI labs. Upward pressure comes from technical capabilities likely already developed; downward pressure stems from potential safety reviews, deployment complexity, or strategic delays. Key upcoming events include any Anthropic announcements at major conferences through summer 2026 and the company's disclosed roadmap timelines. The resolution date is less than six months away, making this relatively near-term compared to broader AI development timelines.
- ›Anthropic's historical release pattern shows major model announcements approximately every 6-12 months; the last major release (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) occurred in October 2024
- ›Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta releasing models on accelerating schedules could influence Anthropic's timing strategy
- ›Related market indicators show traders assign 76% probability to Anthropic's IPO before 2027, suggesting confidence in the company's near-term operational activity
- ›November 1 deadline is 5 months away, leaving limited time for announcement, training completion, and safety review cycles typical of major releases
- ›No official Anthropic announcement or leaked timeline has been widely reported as of May 2026, introducing uncertainty about actual development stage
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.