Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad before Jun 11, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad before Jun 11, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing June 11, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 21,387% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 9¢ price is artificially depressed relative to the tail risk of match relocation.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 21,387% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 9¢ price is artificially depressed relative to the tail risk of match relocation. The 1¢ cross-venue gap to Polymarket (8¢) is modest, but combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread on just $16,412 open interest, liquidity is critically thin and the price may not reflect true consensus. With 55 days to expiry and a high 1,848% realized volatility, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero relocation risk despite FIFA's history of late logistical changes, making this potentially attractive for contrarian bettors willing to accept the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If FIFA officially relocates at least one 2026 FIFA World Cup match from a U.S. venue to a venue outside the United States before ||date||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFIFAUSPULLGAME-26JUN11 yes 100