What is the current probability for "Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 54¢ (54% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 65 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.6% and 634.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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54¢

Bid/Ask 53/54¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $30.5·OI $1,780.947·Closes Jun 30, 2026·65d remaining

0x94bd77816ca1db14619250cea28604afcb64942d5b4f7d3780b40bc0fd95944a

7-day price88 snapshots · 5 regime

54¢53¢ current

Apr 2534¢Apr 26

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.6%

IY (No) 634.0%

Adj IY 598%

CRI 1

RV 1858%

VR 6.58

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	634.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	598%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1858%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.58	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	7.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/26/2026, 1:53:52 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 1:53:51 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x94bd77816ca1db14619250cea28604afcb64942d5b4f7d3780b40bc0fd95944a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →