Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election election in the first round?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election election in the first round?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing a 74% probability that Georgia's 2026 gubernatorial race will be decided in the first round without a runoff, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (22.7% for Yes vs.
Analysis
This market is pricing a 74% probability that Georgia's 2026 gubernatorial race will be decided in the first round without a runoff, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (22.7% for Yes vs. 183.7% for No) signal severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the No side. With only $306 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a 566-day time horizon, the 7-cent spread likely reflects thin order books rather than genuine uncertainty, making this contract unreliable for serious position-taking until liquidity improves.
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-GOV yes 100