SimpleFunctions

Senate · Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia

Senate is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 28¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 9 inside Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia.

Price history

60¢ current

60¢65¢
May 19, 2026Jun 16, 2026

Contract brief

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Senate

Rank

#9 of 9

Leader

Commissioner of Labor 86¢

Range

60¢-86¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SEN

Jun 17, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 8m ago

Implied probability

60¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 17, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 8m ago

Bid

60¢

Ask

88¢

Spread

28¢

Reported volume

$7K

Family rank

#9 of 9

9 outcomes · Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

60 / 88¢

Kalshi
28¢ spread
BidSize
60¢399
50¢400
30¢52
29¢1.0K
8¢800
AskSize
88¢400
94¢600
94¢54
94¢26
96¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SEN

SF Signal
SF Index
54.31
Regime
maker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

48.3%

IY (No)

108.6%

Adj IY

54%

CRI

2

Overround

6.1%

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

political

Full indicator table

48.3%
108.6%
Adj IY
54%
2
Overround
6.1%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.