Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,047 in open interest, and the 20¢ spread suggests thin order books on both sides. The 90¢ price implies a 90% probability AAPL closes above $200 by April 30, 2026, yet the "No" side offers a nonsensical 28,710% implied yield—a red flag indicating either a pricing error or near-zero liquidity on the bearish side. With only 11 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this market is vulnerable to sharp repricing if volume emerges or if AAPL approaches the $200 strike.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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