What is the current probability for "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 79¢ (79% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 38.4% and 543.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░

79¢

Bid/Ask 78/79¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $762.003·OI $19,266.454·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x7209592f294c2b3a7230ea66a4483ecfe1a57ae79144e5e735654829e00cfc68

7-day price46 snapshots · 17 regime

82¢79¢ current

Apr 875¢Apr 22

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 82¢(Δ -3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 31.6%Close-time delta 29h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 38.4%

IY (No) 543.4%

Adj IY 537%

CRI 4

RV 144%

VR 2.33

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	38.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	543.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	537%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	144%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.33	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:01:26 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x7209592f294c2b3a7230ea66a4483ecfe1a57ae79144e5e735654829e00cfc68 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions