Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before Jun 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
81 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before Oct 1, 2026
Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before October
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEJB-SWAG3-OCT01-26
Analysis
This probability measures whether Justin Bieber will release an album or project titled SWAG 3 before June 1, 2026. The current 6% probability reflects the high baseline uncertainty around any specific artist release date, combined with the fact that no official announcement of such a project has been made. The main factors influencing this estimate are the lack of any public statements or roadmap from Bieber or his label regarding a SWAG 3 release, and the relatively short timeframe remaining. Any official announcement, social media teaser, or label statement about an imminent SWAG 3 release would substantially increase the probability, while the approach of June 1 without such signals would effectively close out this particular deadline.
- ›No official announcement or confirmation of a SWAG 3 project has been made as of the current date
- ›Only 10 days remain until the June 1, 2026 deadline, severely limiting time for production and marketing typically required for album releases
- ›Historical release patterns for major artists typically involve advance announcements and promotional campaigns weeks or months before release dates
- ›The existence of prior SWAG releases in Bieber's catalog would be required context for assessing likelihood of a third installment
- ›Any label or artist social media activity specifically mentioning or teasing SWAG 3 would serve as a direct indicator of imminent release intent
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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