Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $781 open interest, making the 63¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $781 open interest, making the 63¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields—37.3% for Yes versus 890.2% for No—suggest severe mispricing, likely driven by the thin order book and wide 9¢ spread. The dramatic 55¢ price surge over seven days combined with the 200-day timeframe and neutral regime indicates this contract may be experiencing speculative positioning rather than fundamental repricing of gas price expectations.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.25 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.25 yes 100