Will average gas prices be above $3.25
Leader sits at 91% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.75
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 2.50
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$113
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
149 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above $
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50?: Above 3.50
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.50
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75?: Above 3.75
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.75
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?: Above 4.00
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00?: Above 5.00
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-5.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.75?: Above 4.75
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.75
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?: Above 4.50
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.50
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?: Above 4.25
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.25
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?: Above 3.25
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.25
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?: Above 3.00
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.75?: Above 2.75
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-2.75
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?: Above 2.50
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-2.50
Analysis
Markets are pricing in a 96% probability that average gas prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon, based on 20 competing price-threshold contracts. This high probability reflects current elevated fuel costs driven by crude oil pricing, refinery constraints, and seasonal demand patterns. The range of contracts ($4.44 to $4.50) shows traders are relatively confident prices will stay well above historical averages, though disagreement persists at higher thresholds. The probability would shift materially if crude oil prices decline significantly, global supply disruptions ease, or demand weakens unexpectedly. Resolution depends on actual price-tracking data over the contract period, with ongoing crude markets, OPEC decisions, and summer driving season dynamics serving as key information sources.
- ›Crude oil prices remain near or above $75–80 per barrel; any sustained drop below $70 would pressure the probability downward
- ›U.S. refinery utilization and any unplanned outages directly affect supply; significant maintenance or closure would support higher prices
- ›Seasonal gasoline demand typically peaks May–September; a weaker-than-expected summer driving season could reduce upside pressure
- ›The probability cliff narrows sharply above $4.46, suggesting traders assign low odds to prices above $4.50 despite the high confidence in $4.44+
- ›Global geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions, sanctions, supply disruptions) represents the largest upside catalyst; stability would favor lower probabilities
What moved the line
- Jun 3Above 3.50↑29pp26→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 4.50↑22pp17→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above 3.50↓21pp47→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 4.25↑21pp18→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 4.00↑20pp31→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Where are oil prices heading?last 18% · 0d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 2d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 2d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 4d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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