Will average gas prices be above $3.25
Leader sits at 94% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.50
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 2.75
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$735
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
105 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above $
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?: Above 3.25
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.25
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75?: Above 3.75
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.75
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?: Above 4.50
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.50
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.75?: Above 4.75
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.75
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?: Above 4.00
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?: Above 2.50
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-2.50
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?: Above 4.25
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.25
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50?: Above 3.50
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.50
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00?: Above 5.00
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-5.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?: Above 3.00
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-3.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $2.75?: Above 2.75
KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-2.75
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $3.25 per gallon over a specific measurement period. The 75-cent contract price implies roughly a 75% probability of this outcome. Current gas prices sit notably below this threshold, so the contract reflects expectations about price movements driven by crude oil futures, seasonal refining patterns, and geopolitical supply dynamics. The key tension: while markets price in a moderate-to-high chance of prices climbing above $3.25, this remains contingent on either sustained crude rallies or supply disruptions. The nearest catalyst is weekly petroleum inventory data and any geopolitical developments affecting crude supply. Traders are simultaneously hedging lower thresholds (91% odds above $2.50) while maintaining skepticism about sustained $3.25+ levels (only 35% odds above $3.50).
- ›Current WTI crude oil futures prices and their term structure suggest modest upward pressure but not aggressive rally momentum
- ›Seasonal refining maintenance patterns and summer driving demand typically support higher margins and pump prices in Q3
- ›No major geopolitical supply disruption or OPEC+ production cut is currently priced in, suggesting the outcome depends on normal supply-demand mechanics
- ›The contract probability declines sharply at higher thresholds ($3.50 at 35%), indicating markets expect prices to remain in the $2.75–$3.25 band rather than spike further
- ›Historical volatility in gas prices and recent price elasticity mean even 50-cent movements can occur within weeks based on crude swings or refinery incidents
What moved the line
- Jul 15Above 3.75↑30pp25→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Above 3.50↑22pp36→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 4.75↑19pp5→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 4.25↑19pp14→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 4.50↑17pp11→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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