SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 20456818 days left

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

12¢
$3K volume
$2K liquidity
1864% of event volume

Event outcomes

8

Family volume

$147

Best sibling

Gadi Eisenkot 14¢

Ticker

KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-ALIE

Price history

12¢ current

+11¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 1, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 12¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
11¢1
3¢1.0K
3¢967
3¢274
2¢1.0K
AskSize
12¢500
54¢21
60¢722
70¢300
92¢888

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Avigdor Lieberman, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2045

Identifier

KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-ALIE

Event family

KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$147

Outcomes

8

Highest price

Naftali Bennett 45¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

43.3%

IY (No)

0.7%

Adj IY

22%

CRI

8

Overround

-0.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

43.3%
0.7%
Adj IY
22%
8
Overround
-0.2%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

Blogtech

MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket

Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index