Naftali Bennett · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01
Naftali Bennett is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01.
Price history
10¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Naftali Bennett
Rank
#2 of 7
Leader
Gadi Eisenkot 55¢
Range
1¢-55¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Aug 7, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$38K
Family rank
#2 of 7
7 outcomes · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
Identifier
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Event family
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Gadi Eisenkot 55¢
Current share
—
Gadi Eisenkot
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-GEIS
Naftali Bennett
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Avigdor Lieberman
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-ALIE
Israel Katz
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IKAT
Itamar Ben-Gvir
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IBEN
Benny Gantz
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-BGAN
Yair Lapid
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YLAP
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.