Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
This contract is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
8
Family volume
$147
Best sibling
Gadi Eisenkot 14¢
Ticker
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YLAP
Price history
4¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yair Lapid, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
Identifier
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YLAP
Event family
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$147
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Naftali Bennett 45¢
Current share
0%
Yair Lapid
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YLAP
Gadi Eisenkot
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-GEIS
Israel Katz
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IKAT
Naftali Bennett
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Yariv Levin
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YLEV
Benny Gantz
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-BGAN
Avigdor Lieberman
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-ALIE
Itamar Ben-Gvir
kalshi · KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IBEN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 4% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.