Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$190
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
6724 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Naftali Bennett
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Cluster 2
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Avigdor Lieberman
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-ALIE
Cluster 3
Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Gadi Eisenkot
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-GEIS
Cluster 4
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Israel Katz
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IKAT
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Naftali Bennett becomes Israel's Prime Minister following the next election. Bennett, a former Prime Minister who led a short-lived coalition government until 2022, faces significant political obstacles in returning to office. The probability reflects his current position in Israeli politics—no longer holding the premier role but maintaining a coalition party with parliamentary representation. The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are the fragmented Israeli political landscape and competition from other coalition figures, particularly Avigdor Lieberman who markets show at higher probability. The outcome hinges on the timing and composition of the next election, which would determine coalition possibilities and Bennett's negotiating leverage. Key resolution points include actual election results and subsequent coalition negotiations, which typically occur months after voting.
- ›Bennett currently leads Yamina party with roughly 6-7 seats in Knesset, lower than competitors like Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu
- ›His previous coalition collapsed in 2022 after internal divisions, affecting his credibility for future coalition leadership
- ›Market prices for Bennett show 37¢ on Polymarket, higher than his 14% aggregated Kalshi pricing, indicating disagreement across prediction venues
- ›The next Israeli election date remains unscheduled; current government stability affects timing and therefore coalition possibilities
- ›Lieberman and Eizenkot appear higher-probability alternatives in available markets, suggesting voters or analysts favor other coalition partners over Bennett
What moved the line
- Jul 31Naftali Bennett↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Naftali Bennett↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Naftali Bennett↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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