Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Naftali Bennett becomes Israel's Prime Minister following the next election. Bennett, a former Prime Minister who led a short-lived coalition government until 2022, faces significant political obstacles in returning to office. The probability reflects his current position in Israeli politics—no longer holding the premier role but maintaining a coalition party with parliamentary representation. The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are the fragmented Israeli political landscape and competition from other coalition figures, particularly Avigdor Lieberman who markets show at higher probability. The outcome hinges on the timing and composition of the next election, which would determine coalition possibilities and Bennett's negotiating leverage. Key resolution points include actual election results and subsequent coalition negotiations, which typically occur months after voting.

• ›Bennett currently leads Yamina party with roughly 6-7 seats in Knesset, lower than competitors like Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu
• ›His previous coalition collapsed in 2022 after internal divisions, affecting his credibility for future coalition leadership
• ›Market prices for Bennett show 37¢ on Polymarket, higher than his 14% aggregated Kalshi pricing, indicating disagreement across prediction venues
• ›The next Israeli election date remains unscheduled; current government stability affects timing and therefore coalition possibilities
• ›Lieberman and Eizenkot appear higher-probability alternatives in available markets, suggesting voters or analysts favor other coalition partners over Bennett

What moved the line

• Apr 26Naftali Bennett↑12pp36→48¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 26Israel Katz↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 27Naftali Bennett↑4pp48→52¢ · Kalshi
• May 1Naftali Bennett↓4pp49→45¢ · Kalshi
• May 1Avigdor Lieberman↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds