Will Bill Cassidy and John Fleming advance in the 2026 Louisiana Republican primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Bill Cassidy and John Fleming advance in the 2026 Louisiana Republican primary?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and just $300 open interest, making the 9-cent price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3-cent spread.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and just $300 open interest, making the 9-cent price potentially unreliable despite the wide 3-cent spread. The extreme 1,228.9% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests either deep mispricing or that traders are pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—both Cassidy and Fleming advancing together in Louisiana's 2026 Republican primary. With 395 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market has time for price discovery, but the lack of trading activity and modest cliff risk index of 13 indicate this contract hasn't attracted meaningful market attention.
Resolution rules
If Bill Cassidy and John Fleming advance in the 2026 Louisiana Republican primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLASENMATCHUP-26MAY-BCASJFLE yes 100