Will Brit Aguirre be the Democratic nominee for WV-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Brit Aguirre be the Democratic nominee for WV-01?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (85%) for Aguirre's nomination despite minimal trading activity—just $151 in open interest and zero volume in the past 24 hours—suggesting the price may reflect limited liquidity rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (85%) for Aguirre's nomination despite minimal trading activity—just $151 in open interest and zero volume in the past 24 hours—suggesting the price may reflect limited liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields (18.2% for Yes vs. 228.8% for No) and wide 7¢ spread indicate significant uncertainty among potential traders, particularly those betting against the favorite. With over 18 months until resolution and a slight recent decline from 80¢ to 78¢, this market appears underexplored and potentially mispriced, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if new information about the primary race emerges.
Resolution rules
If Brit Aguirre wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WV-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWVPRIMARY-01D26-BAGU yes 100