Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-3?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-3?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Chris Rabb's nomination odds have collapsed 37% over the past week (from 30¢ to 19¢), now pricing him at just 21% probability despite extremely thin liquidity of only $6,888 open interest and $437 daily volume.
Analysis
Chris Rabb's nomination odds have collapsed 37% over the past week (from 30¢ to 19¢), now pricing him at just 21% probability despite extremely thin liquidity of only $6,888 open interest and $437 daily volume. The 775% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe illiquidity and high uncertainty, while the 1,620% realized volatility and 4.37 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced dramatic swings—likely driven by sparse information arrivals at 1.0 per hour. With over 200 days until the November 2026 close, the sharp recent decline warrants monitoring for whether it reflects genuine shifts in the primary race or merely reflects low-liquidity noise.
Resolution rules
If Chris Rabb wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-3 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPA3D-26-CRAB yes 100