What is the current probability for "Will Conrad Cable be the Democratic nominee for LA-04?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Conrad Cable be the Democratic nominee for LA-04?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 43.4% and 97.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Conrad Cable be the Democratic nominee for LA-04?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Conrad Cable be the Democratic nominee for LA-04?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Conrad Cable be the Democratic nominee for LA-04?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $2,275 open interest, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 60/65¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $2,275·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXLAPRIMARY-04D26-CCAB

7-day price5 snapshots · 2 regime

61¢61¢ current

Apr 1460¢Apr 17

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $2,275 open interest, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—43% for Yes versus 96.8% for No—suggest the market is pricing in significant uncertainty, though the No side's yield appears inflated relative to the risk, indicating possible mispricing. With 566 days until expiry and a neutral regime, this contract lacks the trading activity and price discovery needed to confidently assess Cable's actual nomination odds.

Resolution rules

If Conrad Cable wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 LA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 43.4%

IY (No) 97.6%

Adj IY 45%

CRI 2

LAS 0.08

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	43.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	97.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	45%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:56:18 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLAPRIMARY-04D26-CCAB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →