Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with only $750 open interest and minimal $5 daily volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with only $750 open interest and minimal $5 daily volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—351.1% for Yes versus 4.3% for No—reflect the thin liquidity and wide 3¢ spread rather than genuine conviction, while the high Cliff Risk Index of 9 suggests significant binary event risk. With nearly 3 years until expiration and no recent price movement, this appears to be a speculative niche market lacking sufficient depth for meaningful analysis.
Resolution rules
If Dave Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOML-28-DSMI yes 100