What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump meet in person Xi Jinping before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 94¢ (94% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donald Trump meet in person Xi Jinping before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10.8% and 1907.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Donald Trump meet in person Xi Jinping before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Donald Trump meet in person Xi Jinping before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will Donald Trump meet in person Xi Jinping before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely high probability (94¢) of a Trump-Xi in-person meeting within 26 months, though the extremely skewed implied yields—1,616.9% for a No resolution versus 12.2% for Yes—suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the downside.

██████████████████████████████████████░░

94¢

Bid/Ask 93/94¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,352.67·OI $22,841.82·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NXJIN

7-day price66 snapshots · 10 regime

94¢93¢ current

Apr 1290¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

The market is pricing an extremely high probability (94¢) of a Trump-Xi in-person meeting within 26 months, though the extremely skewed implied yields—1,616.9% for a No resolution versus 12.2% for Yes—suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the downside. With only $5.29 in 24-hour volume against $21.8k open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, this appears to be a thin, one-sided market where the No position offers outsized compensation for tail risk, though the neutral regime score and stable 7-day price action indicate no recent catalyst has shifted sentiment.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10.8%

IY (No) 1907.3%

Adj IY 1887%

CRI 13

RV 84%

VR 2.53

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1907.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1887%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	84%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	7.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:22:45 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NXJIN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →