Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market reflects extremely high confidence in Luria's nomination at 88¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $499 open interest suggest severe illiquidity that may not support the price if tested.
Analysis
This market reflects extremely high confidence in Luria's nomination at 88¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $499 open interest suggest severe illiquidity that may not support the price if tested. The asymmetric implied yields—37.3% for Yes versus 888.2% for No—indicate the market is pricing in a heavily skewed outcome, though the 7¢ spread and modest price stability over seven days (82¢ to 83¢) suggest some consensus despite thin trading. With 201 days until expiry and a high cliff risk index of 5, this contract faces significant event risk and may experience sharp repricing if competing candidates emerge or Luria's political standing shifts.
Resolution rules
If Elaine Luria wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 VA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVA2D-26-ELUR yes 100