What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 1¢ (1% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026.

Where can I trade "Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 2026

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

1¢

$3.3M volume

$13K liquidity

5% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$64.2M

Best sibling

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Elon Musk 1¢

Ticker

0xb740ce80…bc78

Price history

1¢ current

Apr 8, 2026Apr 30, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 1¢

Polymarket

0¢ spread

BidSize

100¢6.5K

100¢40

100¢5.0K

100¢750

0¢28K

0¢11K

0¢2.3K

0¢1.2K

AskSize

2¢1.5K

2¢1.3K

2¢1.1K

2¢705

2¢363

100¢263

100¢2.0K

100¢421

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a "good idea." You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299 This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. An agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0xb740ce80…bc78

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 7¢, -6¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Tech / IPO.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$64.2M

Outcomes