Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?

The Yes position shows extreme asymmetry with a 119% implied yield versus 28.9% for No, suggesting traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite the modest 33¢ price—this 3.1x yield differential is notable given the neutral regime and indicates the market may be underpricing either IPO probability or ticker-symbol specificity risk. The 7-day surge from 12¢ to 33¢ (175% move) combined with 783% realized volatility signals recent information arrival (0.8/h), though the $18.9M open interest against $2.3M daily volume suggests liquidity could constrain position exits if sentiment shifts. With 623 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of just 2, the market appears to be pricing this as a medium-probability event with ample time for resolution, though the extreme yield on Yes reflects genuine binary risk around whether SpaceX IPOs at all and under ticker $X specifically.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market. If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS). If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order. If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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