Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $640 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $640 billion?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme annualized yields (2862% on the No side) despite only 14 days to expiration, reflecting the binary nature of the resolution and minimal time decay.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme annualized yields (2862% on the No side) despite only 14 days to expiration, reflecting the binary nature of the resolution and minimal time decay. The price has surged 2500% over seven days from 2¢ to 52¢, suggesting either significant new information about Musk's wealth or speculative positioning ahead of the tight deadline. With only $142.72 in open interest and a 4¢ spread on a 52¢ midpoint, liquidity is severely constrained, making these headline yields somewhat illusory given execution risk.
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk's net worth is above $640 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T640 yes 100