Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $640 billion?

Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $640 billion?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme annualized yields (2862% on the No side) despite only 14 days to expiration, reflecting the binary nature of the resolution and minimal time decay.

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98¢
Bid/Ask 25/98¢·Spread 73¢·Vol $1·OI $149.12·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining
KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T640
7-day price100 snapshots · 2 regime
54¢25¢ current
Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits extreme annualized yields (2862% on the No side) despite only 14 days to expiration, reflecting the binary nature of the resolution and minimal time decay. The price has surged 2500% over seven days from 2¢ to 52¢, suggesting either significant new information about Musk's wealth or speculative positioning ahead of the tight deadline. With only $142.72 in open interest and a 4¢ spread on a 52¢ midpoint, liquidity is severely constrained, making these headline yields somewhat illusory given execution risk.

Resolution rules

If Elon Musk's net worth is above $640 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12423.4%
IY (No) 1380.4%
Adj IY 6212%
CRI 3
Overround 2.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)12423.4%
IY (No)1380.4%
Adj IY6212%
CRI3
Overround2.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
73¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:58:06 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T640 yes 100

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