Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $660 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $660 billion?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4907% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 14 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity ($386.71 open interest, $11.71 daily volume) is driving the 41¢ price well below fundamental value.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4907% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 14 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity ($386.71 open interest, $11.71 daily volume) is driving the 41¢ price well below fundamental value. The realized volatility of 362% and dramatic 7-day price swing from 3¢ to 35¢ indicate this is a thin, volatile micro-market where small trades create outsized price movements rather than reflecting genuine probability estimates. With Musk's net worth heavily dependent on Tesla's stock price and the resolution date just two weeks away, the low cliff risk index (2) suggests relatively stable underlying conditions, but the extreme yield metrics and low liquidity make this unsuitable for serious capital allocation.
Also on polymarket at 16¢(Δ +24¢)
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk's net worth is above $660 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T660 yes 100