Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $700 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026 be above $700 billion?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with only 14 days to expiry and a massive 23,780% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price severely undervalues the probability or reflects illiquidity panic.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with only 14 days to expiry and a massive 23,780% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price severely undervalues the probability or reflects illiquidity panic. The $51 daily volume and $1,004.93 open interest indicate dangerously thin liquidity, while the realized volatility of 1,567% and cliff risk index of 9 signal high manipulation risk as the market approaches resolution. The recent price movement from 6¢ to 10¢ combined with the 2¢ spread on such a thin market warrants caution—this appears to be a liquidity trap rather than a reliable probability signal.
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk's net worth is above $700 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMUSKNW-26APR30-T700 yes 100