Will Elon Musk leave DOGE?
Leader sits at 6% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Will the number of distinct
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$97K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will Elon Musk's net worth” vs “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Elon Musk's net worth
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.0 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T2000
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.8 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T1800
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.4 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T2400
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.9 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T1900
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $800 billion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T800
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.7 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T1700
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.6 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T1600
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $900 billion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T900
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.3 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T2300
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.1 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T1100
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.2 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T2200
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.2 trillion?
KXMUSKNW-26DEC31-T1200
Cluster 2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Analysis
There is currently no live prediction market data linking Elon Musk to a resignation, departure, or specific efficiency department role. Market attention is instead focused on his long-term financial trajectory, with a 67% chance that his net worth will exceed $800 billion by December 31, 2026.
- ›No market data on Musk government roles
- ›67% chance of $800B+ net worth
- ›27% chance of $900B+ net worth
- ›Market focus on long-term wealth
What moved the line
- Jul 17Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $900 billion?↓19pp47→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.1 trillion?↓10pp38→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $800 billion?↓9pp71→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.2 trillion?↓6pp32→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.6 trillion?↓6pp17→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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