Will Elon Musk leave DOGE?
Leader sits at 6% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Will the number of distinct
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$33K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 4% of their title tokens — “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly” vs “Will Elon Musk join Instagram before Jul 4, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Cluster 2
Will Elon Musk join Instagram before Jul 4, 2026
Will Elon Musk join Instagram before Jul 4, 2026?
KXJOINMUSKINSTA-26
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?" 62¢; kalshi "Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?" 19¢; kalshi "Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?" 8¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›No active government efficiency contract
- ›Tesla stock performance
- ›Ongoing political speculation
- ›Current market focus on corporate entities
What moved the line
- May 31Will Elon Musk join Instagram before Jul 4, 2026?↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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