What is the current probability for "Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 44¢ (44% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 350.8% and 58.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 470.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 42% on the No side, suggesting the 44¢ price may undervalue the probability given Drake's track record of featuring emerging artists.

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44¢

Bid/Ask 29/44¢·Spread 15¢·Vol $65.79·OI $707.82·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-ESD

7-day price56 snapshots · 3 regime

30¢29¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 470.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 42% on the No side, suggesting the 44¢ price may undervalue the probability given Drake's track record of featuring emerging artists. Volume is anemic at $10.93 in 24 hours with a wide 21¢ spread, indicating low liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency on a niche outcome with 260 days to resolution. The recent downward drift from 25¢ to 23¢ combined with a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggests some uncertainty around album release timing or feature confirmation mechanics.

Resolution rules

If EsDeeKid is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 350.8%

IY (No) 58.5%

Adj IY 85%

CRI 2

Overround 5.8%

LAS 0.52

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	350.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	58.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	85%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.52	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

15¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:18:12 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-ESD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →