Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 741% annualized return versus just 26.9% for No, suggesting the 16¢ price may undervalue the probability of exactly three GOP Senate losses.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 741% annualized return versus just 26.9% for No, suggesting the 16¢ price may undervalue the probability of exactly three GOP Senate losses. The zero 24-hour volume combined with modest $3,438 open interest indicates thin liquidity, making the tight 1¢ spread potentially misleading about true execution costs. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 5, this appears to be a niche contract where the precise outcome specification (exactly 3, not 2-4) creates pricing inefficiency rather than fundamental market disagreement.
Resolution rules
If exactly 3 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-3 yes 100