Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$274
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will exactly” vs “Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Will exactly 4 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 4
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-4
Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 3
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-3
Will exactly 2 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 2
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-2
Cluster 2
Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026
Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?: 5 or more
KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-5
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that exactly three Senate Republicans will fail to win re-election in 2026, neither more nor fewer. Currently at 16%, this reflects a scenario where Republicans face moderate but not severe headwinds. The current assessment appears anchored on competitive races in states like Maine (31¢ probability of GOP victory) and Ohio (very tight margins expected), while Republican strongholds like Wyoming and Kansas show strong incumbency advantages. The probability would rise if economic conditions deteriorate or presidential approval drops significantly, and would fall if Republicans consolidate support in currently contested races. The 2026 midterm election on November 3rd will definitively resolve this question, though Senate race dynamics will clarify substantially through summer polling and September primary results across key states.
- ›Maine Senate race competitiveness: GOP candidate probability at 31¢ suggests meaningful Democratic vulnerability in a traditionally competitive state
- ›Ohio margin expectations: Republican victory margin priced at only 6¢ for 4+ points indicates an extremely tight race in a key battleground
- ›Incumbent protection in safe states: Wyoming (85¢ for 30+ point margin) and Kansas (73¢ GOP win) show strong baseline Republican retention in non-competitive races
- ›Overall Senate control pricing at 50¢: Equal Republican-Democratic odds for chamber control suggest the electoral environment remains genuinely uncertain
- ›Specific threshold effect: Exactly three losses is a narrow band—more Democrats gaining seats would move the question into different territory
What moved the line
- Aug 8Exactly 4↓9pp23→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 85 or more↑4pp42→46¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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