Will exactly 5 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will exactly 5 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This illiquid niche Supreme Court market shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a 1,289% implied yield versus just 91% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or very low conviction among traders.
Analysis
This illiquid niche Supreme Court market shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a 1,289% implied yield versus just 91% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or very low conviction among traders. The 27¢ price has declined 19% over seven days to its current level, yet the $0 24-hour volume and $1,685 open interest indicate virtually no recent trading activity, making the quoted price potentially stale. With 107 days to expiry and a wide 8¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient depth to be actionable for most traders.
Resolution rules
If exactly 5 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVRASCOTUSVOTE-26-5 yes 100