Will exactly 0 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 90% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
90%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
37 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will exactly 6 justices vote for the petitioner in Trump v. Slaughter
Will exactly 6 justices vote for the petitioner in Trump v. Slaughter?: 6
KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-6
Analysis
This prediction estimates an 88% chance that no Supreme Court justice will vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, a case expected to reach the Court's docket. The high probability reflects expectations about how the current Court composition aligns with the case's legal merits and the petitioner's arguments. Resolution depends on the Court's final decision and vote breakdown when the opinion is issued. Key factors include the justices' established voting patterns on similar cases, the specific legal questions presented, whether the Court grants certiorari, and any amicus briefs or oral arguments that might shift consensus. The resolution point occurs when the Court publishes its ruling and vote tallies.
- ›Current Supreme Court composition and each justice's documented positions on the legal issues at stake
- ›Whether the Supreme Court grants certiorari; if denied, the prediction resolves with 0 votes for petitioner by default
- ›The specific framing of legal questions presented and how narrowly or broadly justices interpret the case's scope
- ›Strength and content of petitioner's merits brief compared to respondent's, including any shifts in legal theory between lower courts and Supreme Court
- ›The actual vote distribution revealed in the Court's published opinion, which may differ from pre-ruling expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 196↑3pp83→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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