What is the current probability for "Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 607 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1142.1% and 3.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

KalshiDec 31, 2027607 days left

Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 6¢ spread.

Open on Kalshi JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

11¢

$65 volume

$61 liquidity

26% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$249

Best sibling

Léa Seydoux 15¢

Ticker

KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-FLO

Price history

11¢ current

+8¢

May 1, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 11¢

Kalshi

6¢ spread

BidSize

100¢838

5¢100

4¢5

3¢200

2¢200

AskSize

11¢40

13¢200

27¢200

55¢52

56¢576

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Florence Pugh is cast in The White Lotus: Season 4 before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Identifier

KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-FLO

Event family

KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$249

Outcomes

Highest price

Léa Seydoux 15¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Florence Pugh

kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-FLO

5¢$0$01.4

Léa Seydoux

kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-LEA