Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1%?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $124 open interest, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable despite a wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $124 open interest, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable despite a wide 9¢ spread. The astronomical 8755% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or reflects the market's difficulty pricing an event just 13 days from resolution, when France's preliminary Q1 2026 GDP data should be nearly certain. The sharp 2¢-to-24¢ price movement over seven days suggests recent information flow, though the neutral regime score and minimal liquidity warrant extreme caution before treating this as a genuine probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above 1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T1 yes 100