Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%
Leader sits at 97% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.4%
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above -0.6%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T-0.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T2.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T2.0
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.8
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.6
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.4
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.0
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.8
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.6
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.4
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.0
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.6%?: Above -0.6%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T-0.6
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T-0.4
Analysis
Traders are pricing an 94% chance that France's preliminary year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.4%, suggesting they expect the economy to avoid a severe contraction. The high probability reflects expectations of modest economic resilience, though the tight clustering of prices around -0.2% to -0.4% indicates substantial uncertainty about whether growth will turn positive. The main drivers are labor market stability, consumer spending patterns, and industrial production trends across the eurozone. Resolution depends on the official GDP release from INSEE (France's statistical agency), typically published 30-45 days after quarter-end. Downside risks include prolonged weakness in manufacturing and services sectors, while upside catalysts include stronger-than-expected export demand or domestic investment recovery. The narrow gap between the -0.4% and -0.6% contracts (both at 94¢) suggests traders view anything weaker than -0.6% as unlikely but distinguish meaningfully between marginal contraction and stabilization near zero.
- ›Q2 2026 INSEE preliminary GDP release date and actual print relative to -0.4% threshold will directly resolve this contract
- ›Recent European Central Bank monetary policy decisions and eurozone growth trends shape baseline expectations for French economic momentum
- ›Labor force participation, unemployment rates, and wage growth data through Q2 2026 affect consumer purchasing power and domestic demand
- ›Manufacturing PMI and export order flows indicate whether industrial sectors can sustain activity above contraction levels
- ›The 92¢ price on the -0.2% threshold versus 94¢ on -0.4% suggests traders view stronger positive growth as less probable than avoiding severe contraction
Recently closed in recession
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%last 92% · 0d
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 0d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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