Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing October 27, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $47 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $47 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 319% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the thin liquidity and wide 3¢ spread, while the neutral regime score and stable 7-day price action suggest limited recent conviction from traders. With 559 days until expiry and a moderate 5 cliff risk index, this contract has time for information to develop, but the minimal trading activity indicates low market confidence in either outcome.
Also on polymarket at 17¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
If Gadi Eizenkot becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-GEIZ yes 100