Will Yair Lapid become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$669
7 contracts
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 2
Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 3
Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 4
Will Avigdor Lieberman become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 5
Will Benny Gantz become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 6
Will Gideon Sa'ar become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 7
Will Yossi Cohen become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, will become Israel's Prime Minister following the 2026 legislative election. Lapid's 24% probability places him behind Benjamin Netanyahu (42%) and Naftali Bennett (37%) in market expectations, reflecting both his party's historical performance and coalition-building dynamics in Israeli politics. The outcome depends primarily on two factors: the actual election results on November 1, 2026, which will determine seat distribution, and subsequent coalition negotiations where smaller parties' decisions often prove decisive in forming a government. The election itself represents the main catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though post-election coalition talks could extend several weeks. Market pricing suggests Netanyahu remains the favored candidate, but Lapid's roughly one-in-four odds indicate meaningful support for a potential center-left alternative coalition.
- ›Yesh Atid's parliamentary seat count on November 1, 2026, directly constrains Lapid's coalition-building capacity
- ›Right-wing and Orthodox parties' combined seats will determine whether left-center coalitions become mathematically viable
- ›Smaller parties' willingness to join a Lapid-led coalition versus alternatives will prove decisive in government formation
- ›Historical precedent shows Israeli coalition negotiations typically require 2-4 weeks post-election to form a government
- ›Current polling trends and internal party dynamics showing Yesh Atid's support level relative to competing center-left parties
What moved the line
- Jun 21Gadi Eizenkot↑8pp38→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Naftali Bennett↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Gadi Eizenkot↑6pp24→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Gadi Eizenkot↑6pp31→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Avigdor Lieberman↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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