Will Yair Lapid become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
8 contracts
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
398 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 2
Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 3
Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 4
Will Avigdor Lieberman become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 5
Will Benny Gantz become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 6
Will Israel Katz become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 7
Will Yossi Cohen become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 8
Will Yuli Edelstein become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets assess a 12% chance Yair Lapid will become Prime Minister after Israel's 2026 legislative election. Lapid leads the centrist Yesh Atid party and previously served as PM in 2022-2023. His current standing reflects competition from other potential candidates—particularly Gadi Eizenkot, whose contract trades at 54 cents, and ongoing fragmentation of Israel's political center. The 2026 election itself will be the primary determinant, though coalition negotiations afterward could significantly alter outcomes. Key factors include Lapid's current polling performance relative to other opposition figures, whether centrist parties can coordinate strategically, Lapid's ability to differentiate from other candidates claiming similar political space, and broader Israeli security and economic conditions heading into the election.
- ›Lapid's polling position versus other centrist and opposition candidates in pre-election surveys
- ›Coalition-building capacity: whether leftist and centrist parties agree on a unified candidate or pursue separate paths
- ›Competitive dynamics with Gadi Eizenkot, whose market probability is significantly higher at 54%
- ›Electoral rules and party threshold requirements that could consolidate or fragment opposition votes
- ›Incumbent government performance and security developments between now and election day that affect voter sentiment
What moved the line
- Sep 17Benjamin Netanyahu↑4pp27→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Benjamin Netanyahu↓4pp30→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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