Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 16¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
16¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Outcome
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$17.1M
Identifier
0x4567b275...7e57
Jun 19, 2026, 5:11 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$17.1M
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
0x4567b275…7e57
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17.1M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election 16¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.