Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: TVK
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
23%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$49K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Maine Senate Election Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
0x2053d8…5277
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
0x7ad403…c422
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x4567b2…7e57
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris
0xb3298a…2501
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson
0xd94b47…a797
Cluster 2
Maine Senate Election Winner
Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat
0x66bbf6…639c
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Analysis
The 32% probability reflects market expectations that Tamil Nadu's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance will retain power in the state's next legislative assembly elections, with the Vijay-led TVK party capturing a meaningful but minority share of seats. This level suggests traders view TVK as a credible challenger with organizational capacity and regional appeal, but not the frontrunner. The primary drivers are TVK's organizational maturity, its performance in local contests, and whether the DMK alliance sustains its current coalition structure. The 2026 Tamil Nadu legislative elections—scheduled for April 2026 based on state assembly terms—represent the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Market pricing could shift significantly based on internal alliance negotiations, campaign momentum indicators, or unexpected defections among either established or emerging parties in the state.
- ›TVK's vote share and seat projections in pre-election opinion polls published 2-3 months before voting
- ›Stability and public perception of the incumbent DMK-led alliance's governance record on economic and welfare metrics
- ›Electoral alliances formed by TVK with other regional parties, which would directly impact seat arithmetic
- ›Results from state-level by-elections or local body elections occurring before the assembly vote, signaling voter sentiment shifts
- ›Turnout patterns and demographic voting behavior in key districts where TVK has concentrated organizational presence
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 55% · 0d
- Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 91% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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