Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: ADMK
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
23%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$49K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Maine Senate Election Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
0x2053d8…5277
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
0x7ad403…c422
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x4567b2…7e57
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris
0xb3298a…2501
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson
0xd94b47…a797
Cluster 2
Maine Senate Election Winner
Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat
0x66bbf6…639c
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Analysis
This probability indicates a 22% chance that the ADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) will win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election. The current assessment reflects ADMK's status as the primary opposition to the ruling DMK coalition, though the party faces headwinds from incumbent advantage and recent electoral performance. Key drivers of this probability include ADMK's ground organization, alliance strategies, and voter consolidation efforts against the currently governing coalition. The election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, caste-based voting patterns, and whether ADMK can effectively mobilize its traditional voter base across the state's districts. The resolution of this market will occur on the official election date when results are declared by the Tamil Nadu Electoral Commission.
- ›ADMK's performance in recent local body elections and bye-elections relative to DMK's
- ›Composition and stability of pre-poll alliances, particularly ADMK's tie-ups with smaller regional parties
- ›Regional faction strength within ADMK leadership and candidate selection outcomes
- ›Voter turnout and participation rates across urban, rural, and semi-urban constituencies
- ›DMK's incumbent government approval ratings and delivery on key campaign promises
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will AAK win the 2026 Kosovan parliamentary electionlast 97% · 0d
- Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 59% · 0d
- Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winnerlast 60% · 0d
- Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 55% · 0d
- Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 91% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.