Will Geoff Duncan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Geoff Duncan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 3201% and a dramatic 7-day price swing from 4¢ to 14¢, suggesting significant new information or sentiment shifts around Duncan's candidacy prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 3201% and a dramatic 7-day price swing from 4¢ to 14¢, suggesting significant new information or sentiment shifts around Duncan's candidacy prospects. The implied yield on the Yes side reaches an unsustainable 1118%, indicating either very low confidence in the 16¢ price or potential mispricing given the 201-day timeframe to resolution. Liquidity is thin at $12,974 open interest with modest 24-hour volume of $2,848.87, so the extreme yield figures may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.
Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
If Geoff Duncan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVGANOMD-26-GDUN yes 100