Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of April?

The market is pricing in an extremely high 90% probability that GOOGL closes above $260 by end of April 2026, yet the massive 19¢ spread and extraordinarily skewed implied yields (349.7% for Yes vs. 28,323.8% for No) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the downside. With only $10.757 in 24-hour volume against $968k open interest and just 12 days to expiry, this appears to be a thin, one-sided market where the No side is severely undervalued relative to tail risk, indicated by the Cliff Risk Index of 9.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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