Will Google (GOOGL) close above ___ end of April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$481
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
211 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Analysis
This market asks whether Google's stock will close above $340 by the end of April 2026. The current 61% probability reflects substantial disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 43% while Polymarket traders price it at 89%, a 46-point gap suggesting uncertainty about current stock levels or different risk assessments. With only one day remaining in April, the outcome depends almost entirely on GOOGL's actual closing price on April 30. The main driver is whether the stock is currently trading near, above, or significantly below the $340 threshold. Resolution occurs at market close on April 30, 2026. The cross-venue divergence suggests either one group has superior information about Google's current trading price, or different trader bases assign different probabilities to GOOGL reaching this level in the final trading session of the month.
- ›Google (GOOGL) closing price on April 30, 2026 relative to the $340 strike level
- ›Current GOOGL trading price as of April 29, 2026 and distance to target
- ›Intraday volatility and typical daily moves for GOOGL during this period
- ›46-percentage-point spread between Kalshi (43%) and Polymarket (89%) indicating significant information asymmetry across venues
- ›One trading day remains for resolution, limiting time for fundamental catalyst impact
What moved the line
- May 31Google↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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