What is the current probability for "Will Gujarat Titans win the IPL?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 15, 2026. 55 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Gujarat Titans win the IPL?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 16013.7% and 27.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Gujarat Titans win the IPL?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Gujarat Titans win the IPL?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Gujarat Titans win the IPL?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 15, 2026. Gujarat Titans is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢, implying only a 6% win probability despite the team's competitive history in IPL, generating an extraordinary 9,594.8% implied yield for Yes holders—a figure that suggests either severe market mispricing or deep skepticism about their 2026 prospects.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $10,504.28·OI $338,206.4·Closes Jun 15, 2026·55d remaining

KXIPL-26-GT

7-day price80 snapshots · 88 regime

11¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

Gujarat Titans is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢, implying only a 6% win probability despite the team's competitive history in IPL, generating an extraordinary 9,594.8% implied yield for Yes holders—a figure that suggests either severe market mispricing or deep skepticism about their 2026 prospects. The price has doubled from 3¢ to 6¢ over seven days on modest $2.8k daily volume, indicating thin liquidity that could amplify moves as the June 2026 expiry approaches in 60 days. The 16 Cliff Risk Index and massive yield asymmetry warrant caution, as such extreme probabilities often reflect either fundamental team weakness or illiquidity-driven distortions rather than genuine predictive value.

Resolution rules

If the Gujarat Titans are the 2026 Indian Premier League Cricket Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 16013.7%

IY (No) 27.8%

Adj IY 12010%

CRI 24

RV 1648%

VR 2.34

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	16013.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	27.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12010%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1648%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:23:14 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPL-26-GT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →