Will Hasbro be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Hasbro be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $8 in 24-hour volume against $720.79 open interest, creating a wide 6¢ spread and an unusually inflated implied yield of 2738% on the Yes side—a red flag suggesting thin pricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $8 in 24-hour volume against $720.79 open interest, creating a wide 6¢ spread and an unusually inflated implied yield of 2738% on the Yes side—a red flag suggesting thin pricing rather than genuine conviction. The 22¢ price implies a very low 22% probability of Hasbro's removal, yet the recent price movement from 13¢ to 15¢ shows modest upward momentum over seven days, potentially reflecting deteriorating fundamentals or index reconstitution concerns. With 76 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 6, traders should be cautious of both the illiquidity risk and the possibility of sharp repricing if material news emerges regarding Hasbro's S&P 500 status.
Resolution rules
If Hasbro is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSP500REMOVEQ-26JUL01-HAS yes 100