What is the current probability for "Will Hudson Williams attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 78¢ (78% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Hudson Williams attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 34.8% and 632.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Hudson Williams attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Hudson Williams attend The Met Gala 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will Hudson Williams attend The Met Gala 2026?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing Hudson Williams as an extremely likely Met Gala attendee at 95¢, but the 17¢ spread and minimal $1.04 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could mask mispricing.

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78¢

Bid/Ask 81/95¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $1.04·OI $40.71·Closes Dec 31, 2026·246d remaining

KXMETGALA-26-HUD

7-day price184 snapshots · 9 regime

84¢81¢ current

Apr 115¢Apr 29

Analysis

12d ago

The market is pricing Hudson Williams as an extremely likely Met Gala attendee at 95¢, but the 17¢ spread and minimal $1.04 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could mask mispricing. The extreme 500% implied yield on the No side combined with an 8196% realized volatility and 54.12 vol ratio indicates this micro-cap market ($16.04 open interest) experiences wild swings, making the 95¢ price potentially unstable despite the long 259-day timeframe to resolution.

Resolution rules

If Hudson Williams attends The Met Gala 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 34.8%

IY (No) 632.6%

Adj IY 316%

CRI 4

Overround 16.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	34.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	632.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	316%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	16.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

14¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 3:37:47 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 3:23:26 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMETGALA-26-HUD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →