Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract has collapsed 8 cents over seven days to 41¢, suggesting significant conviction shift toward Republican prospects in this Montana seat, though the extreme 755% realized volatility and 4.16 vol ratio indicate substantial price instability rather than settled consensus. With zero 24-hour volume despite $14.9M open interest and a wide 6¢ spread, liquidity has evaporated—the asymmetric implied yields (251% for Yes vs. 132% for No) reflect this illiquidity premium rather than balanced market pricing. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample runway for information arrival (1.9 events/hour), suggesting this depressed Democratic price may represent either genuine Republican momentum or a temporary dislocation in a thinly-traded contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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