Will Islam Makhachev be on the UFC 2026 White House event card?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Islam Makhachev be on the UFC 2026 White House event card?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing July 4, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price generating an absurd 15,107% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price generating an absurd 15,107% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation rather than genuine probability assessment. The $30k open interest against only $665 in 24-hour volume indicates trapped capital with minimal price discovery, while the 3,901% realized volatility and 32 Cliff Risk Index signal this contract has experienced violent swings disconnected from fundamental information about Makhachev's UFC scheduling. With 78 days to expiry and a 0.9/hour information arrival rate, the market remains highly unstable and should be treated as illiquid rather than informative.
Resolution rules
If Islam Makhachev is officially listed to compete on the UFC 2026 White House event fight card before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCARDPRESENCEUFCWH-26JUL04-IMAK yes 100